In March 2024, China’s export container transport market performed slightly weak, the market was mainly adjusted, and the comprehensive index fell. According to the latest data released by the General Administration of Customs, China’s foreign trade achieved a good start in 2024. The scale of trade imports and exports in the first two months reached a record high in the same period in history in RMB terms. Imports and exports to ASEAN, the United States, and South Korea all showed growth. The trade data exceeded market expectations, indicating that China’s foreign trade has started steadily and improved in the new year, and is expected to play a long-term supporting role in China’s export container shipping market.
In March 2024, the average value of the China Export Container Comprehensive Freight Index released by the Shanghai Shipping Exchange was 1279.21 points, down 11.2% from the previous month; the average value of the Shanghai Export Container Comprehensive Index reflecting the spot market was 1820.27 points, down 15.9% from the previous month.
1. The port container throughput started well, and the ship leasing market rent continued to rise
① In the first two months of 2024, the container throughput of major ports in my country started well, and it is expected to continue the stable and improving situation in 2024. According to statistics, the total container throughput of ports across the country reached 49.51 million TEUs, up 12.1% from the same period last year.
② The market trend of container chartering remains positive, and market rents continue to rise. According to Clarksons statistics, in March, the rents of 2750TEU, 4400TEU, 6800TEU, and 9000TEU ships increased by 5.1%, 9.7%, 9.9%, and 3.1% respectively compared with the previous month.
2. Freight rates in Europe and the Earth continue to fall
According to data released by the European Statistical Office, industrial output in the euro area fell by 3.2% month-on-month in January, the largest drop since March 2023, showing that the manufacturing industry in Europe has continued to be sluggish since entering 2024. In March, the European Central Bank kept interest rates unchanged, and interest rates in the euro area continued to remain at the highest level since the financial crisis. Against the backdrop of high inflation and high interest rates, the prospects for economic recovery in Europe in the future are not optimistic. At present, the fluctuations in freight rates caused by the geopolitical situation on the Asia-Europe route have stabilized, and the supply and demand fundamentals have become an important factor affecting market freight rates in the near future. This month, transportation demand grew slowly, the supply-demand balance was not ideal, and market freight rates continued to fall. In March, the average freight index of China’s exports to Europe and the Mediterranean routes was 1938.08 points and 2471.59 points, respectively, down 15.8% and 15.7% from the previous month. The average freight rates of Shanghai Port’s exports to Europe and the Mediterranean basic port market, which reflect the spot market, were US$2064/TEU and US$3061/TEU, respectively, down 21.4% and 15.9% from the previous month.
3. Adjustment in the North American market
According to data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the number of non-agricultural employment in the United States increased by 275,000 in February, lower than the previous value. Among them, the unemployment rate rose to 3.9% in February, the highest since January 2022, and signs of a slowdown in the U.S. job market continued, which may have an adverse impact on future transportation demand on North American routes. This month, transportation demand lacked the momentum for further growth, supply and demand relations weakened, and the transportation market showed an adjustment trend. In March, the average freight index of China’s exports to the West Coast and East Coast of the United States were 1029.59 points and 1179.74 points, respectively, down 6.4% and 9.6% from the previous month.
4. Australia and New Zealand freight rates continue to decline
On the Australia and New Zealand routes, local demand for various materials has always hovered at a low level, lacking the motivation for further growth, and the supply and demand relationship is not good, and the market freight rates continue to decline. In March, the average freight index of China’s exports to Australia and New Zealand routes was 925.08 points, down 11.7% from the previous month.
5. The Bohong market fluctuated slightly during Ramadan
In the first half of the Bohong route, transportation demand showed signs of slowing growth when the destination country was about to enter Ramadan, and the supply and demand fundamentals weakened, and the market freight rates continued to fall. After entering Ramadan, transportation demand was better than in previous years, and the spot market booking price rebounded slightly at the end of the month. In March, the average freight index of China’s exports to the Bohong route was 1379.22 points, down 4.7% from the previous month. The average market freight rate from Shanghai Port to the Persian Gulf base port, which reflects the spot market, is US$1,585/TEU, down 1.7% from the previous month.
6. japan freight rates fell slightly
For Japan routes, transportation demand is basically stable, and market freight rates fell slightly. In March, the average freight rate index for China’s exports to Japan routes was 753.62 points, down 6.0% from the previous month.
